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Future long-term care expenditure in Germany, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom
- Authors:
- COMAS-HERRERA Adelina, et al
- Journal article citation:
- Ageing and Society, 26(2), March 2006, pp.285-302.
- Publisher:
- Cambridge University Press
This paper reports findings from a European Commission funded study of future long-term care expenditure in Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom, and presents projections of future long-term care expenditure in the four countries under a number of assumptions about the future. Macro-simulation (or cell-based) models were used to make comparable projections based on a set of common assumptions. A central base-case served as a point of comparison by which to explore the sensitivity of the models to alternative scenarios for the key determinants. The sensitivity of the models to variant assumptions about the future numbers of older people, the prevalence of functional dependency and informal care, patterns of long-term provision, and macroeconomic conditions are examined. It was found that, under the base-case, the proportion of gross domestic product spent on long-term care is projected to more than double between 2000 and 2050 in each country. The projected future demand for long-term care services for older people is sensitive to assumptions about the future number of older people, the prevalence of dependency and the availability of informal care, and projected expenditure is sensitive to assumptions about rises in the real unit-costs of services and the structure of the models. It is important, for planning purposes, to recognise the considerable uncertainty about future levels of long-term care expenditure.
Ageing, social security and affordability
- Editors:
- MARMOR Theodore R., DE JONG Philip R.
- Publisher:
- Ashgate
- Publication year:
- 1998
- Pagination:
- 365p.,tables,bibliogs.
- Place of publication:
- Aldershot
Collection of papers looking at spending on pensions and medical care for older people and their place in the debate about the desirability and affordability of modern social programmes. Includes chapters on: social assistance in the member states of the European Union; the relationship between social and occupational security; an international comparison of legal indexation of social security benefits; the hidden liabilities of public pension plans in twelve EU countries; pensions in transition in the United States and Japan; transitional effects of a change in the Spanish pension system; financing old age in Singapore; pay as you go versus funded system of financing pensions in Central and Eastern Europe; pension system reform in Latin America; equity, cost containment and efficiency in health care; health care reform; the social and economic consequences of delaying a political decision concerning reform of health care in Poland; the role of government in the provision and financing of long term care for older people; the impact of the evolution of health expectancy in future public health care expenditure; and forecasts of future disabled and institutionalised US populations 195 to 2040.