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Length of stay in care homes
- Authors:
- FORDER Julien, FERNANDEZ Jose-Luis
- Publisher:
- Personal Social Services Research Unit
- Publication year:
- 2011
- Pagination:
- 28p.
- Place of publication:
- Canterbury
Care home placements constitute the majority (57%) of net council spending in England on social care for older people. Information about the expected length of stay for people admitted to a care home is important for predicting lifetime costs. This study investigates the length of stay of care home residents by drawing on information about all 11,565 residents that died in Bupa care homes in the period Nov 2008 to May 2010. Residents of the 305 Bupa homes are largely representative of the England average in relation to age, sex and funding source, but Bupa has more people in nursing beds with a higher level of frailty. In the Bupa sample, the average length of stay was 801 days, but with a considerable tail of long-stayers. Half of residents had died by 462 days. Around 27% of people lived for more than 3 years, with the longest stayer living for over 20 years. People had a 55% chance of living for the first year after admission, which increased to nearly 70% for the second year before falling back over subsequent years. Adjusted results estimated to more closely reflect the situation in England are provided. The length of stay information is combined with information about the weekly costs of a care home placement to calculate expected costs of care for people newly admitted to care homes. At £550 per week (before inflation), an 832-day expected stay would cost £65,400.
Impact of changes in length of stay on the demand for residential care services in England: estimates from a dynamic microsimulation model
- Authors:
- FERNANDEZ Jose-Luis, FORDER Julien
- Publisher:
- Personal Social Services Research Unit
- Publication year:
- 2011
- Pagination:
- 13p.
- Place of publication:
- Canterbury
Residential care services constitute the largest component (approximately 60%) of social care expenditure in England. Understanding the level of demand for residential care services in the future, and the associated costs, is paramount to planning for an efficient and equitable social care system. This paper explores the impact of changes in the length of time that individuals spend in residential care once admitted, in order to gauge the impact of likely improvements in the survival of residents in the future. This analysis uses a dynamic microsimulation model to estimates future changes in demand and levels of use of residential care services in England. The central assumptions of the model include a constant age and gender specific prevalence of disability, gains in life expectancy, and real-terms increases in unit costs. Care home unit costs are assumed to start at £550 per week on average and grow by 1.5% until 2016/7 and by 2% thereafter. The implications of length of stay and costs are made in terms of their impact on the projected level of funding required to support future numbers of older people with care needs. The analysis highlights how relatively modest changes in survival in residential care will lead a higher levels of demand and expenditure. It also shows the significant impact of changes in the growth of the weekly person costs of care home services.